Post-Quantum Regulatory Cybersecurity for Global Banking and Financial Infrastructure

Abstract

The emergence of cryptographically relevant quantum computing represents an existential threat to global banking and financial infrastructure relying fundamentally on RSA and elliptic-curve cryptography for transaction security and data confidentiality. Recent advances have compressed quantum threat timelines from speculative 20-30 year projections to near-term estimates of 2030 ± 2 years, with 50 percent probability of RSA-2048 compromise by 2034 and 79 percent by 2044. The National Institute of Standards and Technology finalized post-quantum cryptography standards in August 2024 (FIPS 203, 204, 205), establishing ML-KEM and ML-DSA as primary quantum-resistant algorithms. European Union regulations (DORA, NIS2) mandate cryptographic agility by January 2025. This synthesis reveals only 3 percent of banking websites support post-quantum cryptography despite 80 percent adoption among large institutions with >$7 billion cybersecurity budgets. The post-quantum cryptography market expands from $302.5 million (2024) to $1887.9 million (2029) at 44.2 percent CAGR. This paper provides comprehensive analysis of regulatory frameworks, standardization efforts, implementation barriers, and migration strategies for achieving quantum-safe banking operations by 2035 compliance deadlines.